Prediction about prices hinges on big ‘if’

Letter to the editor
Published: May 2, 2008

Editor:

Your headline writer incorrectly labelled my last letter to you as a “prediction.” It wasn’t.  I was reporting historical facts.

But I encourage you to properly label this letter as a flat-out prediction.  Still, like all rational predictions, it hinges on a big “if.” Here it is.
“If” the committee headed by Mr. Bernanke leaves the interest rate unchanged this week, the price of oil will begin a steady decline.  This will be brought about by a strengthening of the dollar vs. other foreign currencies.

Of course, the dollar still has a long way to go, and there are other forces besides exchange rates that drive the price of oil.  So we should not expect to see gasoline prices go back to their pre-Bush levels.  But I predict $2.90 per gallon by late June — this in the face of increased summer demand.

I could be wrong, but for the sake of all those who have been impoverished by Mr. Bush’s policies, I hope I’m not.

Frank Dixon
Criglersville